Papo de Política #110: estratégia e pesquisa eleitoral
Labour_might_be_down_but_its_not_necessarily_out_-_voters_reflect_on_a_year_in_power.txt
Labour might be lottery wadown, but it's not necessarily out - voters reflect on a year in power6 July 2025ShareSaveLaura KuenssbergPresenter, Sunday with Laura KuenssbergShareSaveBBC"There's only one relationship that really matters," a senior figure in government told me in the middle of Labour's dreadful week, where ministers lost control of their backbenchers. "It's the one with the voters." Well, quite.And that relationship has soured since Labour has been in power. After days of frenzied coverage in Westminster around an anniversary the party might rather forget, what is the state of that vital relationship?We gathered a group of Labour's 2024 voters together to delve into what's gone wrong, according to those who matter the most – the public. Our participants were from two constituencies in Kent: Dartford and Gravesham. Both seats were won by Labour in the heady days of July 2024, thanks not only to Labour's campaign itself, but the collapse of the Conservative vote. And the swing to Sir Keir Starmer's party in both places was enormous, nearly 20%.Our panel was selected by the political research group, More in Common, and the questions were asked to the group not by me, but by its director, Luke Tryl.Jack Hill/The Times/PA WireIt's worth knowing too, when our panel was recruited, they were not told they would be asked about politics.It could have been for any other market research exercise, for washing powder or water bills, rather than anything to do with Westminster - so it wasn't a gathering of political junkies.But our group, who all voted Labour last time, certainly had a strong sense of what has happened to the government they elected just twelve months ago, and it wasn't pretty.First of all, we asked the group about their impressions of Labour's first year back in office, overall.The overwhelming sense, and one of the words used most often, was "disappointed".From top left (L-R): Yvette, Kirsty, Ramesh, Hayley. On the bottom row (L-R): Adam, Veronica, Kelly and Sodiq"I've always been Labour, but I expected much more from them," Yvette, who's 57 and a nutritionist said. "I thought they'd be there for the people."Kelly is 35, and a stay-at-home mum. She was frustrated about what she sees as a lack of progress on immigration. "Everything they promised, nothing has come of it yet," Kelly said. "Immigration is a big thing for me."Adam, is an illustrator aged 37. He was a bit more forgiving of Sir Keir's problems: "They are patching things up, the first year is not the year to push the big ideas, let's steady the ship."But 30-year-old Sodiq, who owns his own business, reckons Labour hadn't been completely straight about what its plans were to start with."I think a lot of the things that were promised were never going to happen," Sodiq said.Kirsty, who's 35 and a teacher, even told us, "I feel lied to".House of Commons/UK Parliament/PA WireWhat about the chaos of Parliament this week, and Labour's many changes of direction since they've been in office? The group had definitely noticed what had gone on in the last seven days, not always the case when it comes to shenanigans in SW1.Veronica, a 64-year-old carer, had seen the chancellor's tears and had some sympathy."I think she's trying her best - there are going to be teething problems, it's only the first year." But she said, "crying at the Commons the other day and Keir Starmer didn't even notice, but everyone else did? Sometimes I think, 'Is it the pressure getting to her?'".Hayley, who is a personal assistant, was also dubious that Sir Keir didn't notice, but reckons the government deserves more time."You can't turn the country round in a year," the 40-year-old said.But it was clear the group had reservations about Labour's repeated shifts in position - whether on welfare this week, or winter fuel before.While praising Sir Keir for listening, Adam said: "What happened this week - another U-turn - was worrying, it pushes the idea that there is no direction."Yvette said "if he makes a decision he should stand by it", changes of heart were like "lastminute.com".Jacob King/PA WireIn the general election there were big shifts towards Reform UK, even though they didn't win either the Dartford or Gravesham seat.But Kent was one of the 10 councils Farage's party took control of in the local elections this May.Reform's progress has certainly been noticed. Kelly said: "They are picking away at figures and picking away at other things – they seem to be doing things, and proactive."Given how Reform is doing in the national polls, consistently ahead of the other political parties, it was no surprise that some of the group were thinking about giving Nigel Farage a chance next time round."If there were an election tomorrow I would vote for him," Yvette said, suggesting he should be given a chance even though "a lot of bad things are said about him".Jordan Pettitt/PA WireBut Sodiq said: "I'm at the other end of the scale. He's a politician, like others, who says things people want to hear, and people generally are not comfortable with the two main parties, and just want to try something else."Labour is worried by their grisly position in the polls, and there's something of a sense of bewilderment too about just how shaky things have got in the last few weeks.But at senior levels, sources believe if they keep on keeping on, eventually, many voters like those we met this weekend will return to them if hopes for improvements in the NHS and the economy come to pass.Sign up for the Off Air with Laura K newsletter to get Laura Kuenssberg's expert insight and insider stories every week, emailed directly to you.Watch tomorrow to hear the advice that our group would give Sir Keir Starmer in order to improve, to make that happen.Of course this is only a taste of what's on some voter's minds in just two constituencies, but the mood was certainly disappointed with what has, and has not happened since Labour moved back into power. But there was a sense, a grudging willingness among these Labour voters to give Sir Keir and the government more time.After twelve months, Labour is most certainly down, but not necessarily out.More from InDepthKuenssberg: Starmer's first year ends in shambles, but could he still turn it around?Huge dilemmas lie ahead for UK over IranStarmer's stormy first year: Why his political honeymoon was so short-livedTop image credit: ReutersBBC InDepth is the home on the website and app for the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the biggest issues of the day. And we showcase thought-provoking content from across BBC Sounds and iPlayer too. You can send us your feedback on the InDepth section by clicking on the button below.Rachel ReevesKeir StarmerLabour PartyLaura Kuenssberg
