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Will UK turmoil sink Labour's hopes at Holyrood?mirage of blaze rebels of the river edge5 days agoShareSavePhil SimBBC Scotland political correspondentShareSaveGetty ImagesCan Labour persuade Scots that they have delivered on their promise of change?Sir Keir Starmer's sweeping government reshuffle sent shockwaves through Westminster - and Scottish Labour.The changes were prompted by the resignation of Angela Rayner as deputy prime minister, but it quickly became a fundamental shake-up with great offices of state changing hands.And one of the first signals that it was going to be a big one was the news that Ian Murray had been sacked as Scottish secretary.There is plenty of sympathy in the party for Murray, who spent 14 years slogging away in opposition then barely lasted 12 months in post.So what does all of the turmoil mean for his replacement, Douglas Alexander - and more importantly for Labour in Scotland, eight months out from a crucial Holyrood election?Getty ImagesIan Murray was sacked from the Scotland Office as part of the reshuffleThe news that Murray had been ousted came as a surprise to many in the Labour Party north of the border.Murray had spent years as Labour's only MP in Scotland, its sole survivor of the SNP's landslide victories in 2015 and 2019.And yet after the party's return to power - partly built on a resurgence in Scotland - he got barely a year in post.He was clearly none too happy. The line in his statement about being "hugely disappointed" is not the half of it.As an added indignity, someone snapped a picture of him miserably drafting that statement in an airport lounge and it was printed in a newspaper.No inklingScottish Labour figures described the move as a "shocker", a "disgrace", and various other frankly unprintable terms.Duncan Hothersall of the Labour Hame website told BBC Radio Scotland that it would make it harder to persuade activists to get out knocking on doors.And this was acknowledged by Downing Street to the extent that Murray was later offered not one but two junior ministerial roles - in the department of Culture, Media and Sport and the department of Science, Innovation and Technology - turning his sacking into a mere demotion.This was clearly a very late addition to Starmer's pre-planned manoeuvre - Murray talked about going back to the backbenches in his statement, so he had no inkling it was coming.Rather it seems to have been an attempt by Downing Street to calm the discontent in the party's Scottish ranks.Getty ImagesDouglas Alexander was brought into cabinet by Tony Blair in 2006Something which wasn't remotely surprising was the fact Douglas Alexander was given the job of Scottish Secretary.He only returned to Westminster last year as MP for East Lothian, but he spent 18 years representing Paisley and has more experience of government than almost anyone else around the cabinet table.He was last appointed to this post in 2006, in a joint role where he was also transport Secretary.He toured the globe as Gordon Brown's international development secretary, and was shadow foreign secretary in opposition up to the point where a 20-year-old student named Mhairi Black sensationally knocked him out of parliament.Who would have imagined that 10 years later Alexander would be back in the cabinet while Black would be out of the SNP and touring the stand-up comedy circuit?PA MediaLabour went from one Scottish MP to 37 in the 2024 general electionAlexander had actually just been given another job, co-chairing Scottish Labour's election campaign alongside Jackie Baillie.And that is perhaps his most crucial role even in the eyes of the prime minister, who will see next year's elections to the devolved parliaments in Scotland and Wales as a massive test.Picture a world where Labour loses Wales after 27 years, and the SNP takes a majority at Holyrood to ramp up pressure for an independence referendum.That would be a blow the prime minister might struggle to recover from.It means disgruntled Labour activists will get behind Alexander regardless of how they feel about him supplanting Murray, because they can't afford not to.It does make their job harder though.Alexander says Labour can 'disprove the critics'Douglas Alexander named Scottish secretary after Ian Murray sackedEver since Anas Sarwar became Scottish Labour leader with the goal of booting out the SNP at Holyrood, he has been pushing the message of a failing government.But with everything going on at Westminster, that's exactly the charge laid at his party's door by the SNP and Reform UK.Indeed the SNP are hoping to capitalise not just to stay in office, but to push their arguments for independence.People were promised change at Westminster, and backed Labour in their droves last year, north and south of the border, to deliver it.But if people still feel let down by the UK government, the SNP reckon their offer of an alternative constitutional path becomes more and more relevant.And the anti-establishment rhetoric of Reform UK is boosted by the same thing - the anti-politics feeling which persists among the electorate is fertile ground for Nigel Farage's band of outsiders.Getty ImagesJohn Swinney is hoping to capitalise on Labour's woes at WestminsterSo will this ongoing turmoil have a major bearing on next year's Holyrood election?In the aftermath of the general election, the SNP and Labour were more or less neck and neck in the polls. It seemed like there was going to be a real fight between John Swinney and Anas Sarwar to be the next first minister.But Labour's difficult introduction to life in power down south has not stood its Scottish wing in good stead.The SNP has had a double-digit lead in every poll logged by the "What Scotland Thinks" project since last November.The one sliver of light that Labour has to cling to is that despite all this, they still managed to win the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election in June.That was despite the SNP leading in all the national polls, despite controversy over the winter fuel payment and National Insurance contributions, despite Reform ultimately finishing a strong third with 26% of the vote.Professional machineThat speaks to the professional machine the party has built on the ground. Labour won that by-election with a boots-on-the-ground strategy - their candidate almost never appeared on TV or radio, but he turned up on the doorsteps of thousands of voters.Alexander says this approach, combining "hard work, humility and listening to people", is what the party will use to disprove the "critics and cynics".It is difficult to replicate in a national election though, with 73 constituencies and eight regions to campaign across. Especially if you've just annoyed your activist base.If negative headlines continue to come out of Downing Street it is going to be hard for Labour to set the terms of the contest - and far easier for the SNP and others to chip away at them.The election campaign has been under way for some time already; things have never really slowed down since the general election.The fight for votes next May is well and truly on. This kind of political turmoil only adds fuel to the fire.Who is the new Scottish Secretary Douglas Alexander?Will independence dominate Scottish politics again?ScotlandScottish LabourAnas SarwarIan Murray
