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Forward soybean sales stall amid trade war Agribusiness valorinternational.txt
Uncertainties in the international soybean market,jogo haunt the house especially the trade war promoted by the Trump administration, are making Brazilian producers more cautious when closing advance sales for the 2025/26 crop, whose planting is beginning in the country. As a result, advance crop sales are now behind compared to the same moment in last year’s cycle, as producers hold out in hope of better prices ahead. Rafael Silveira, analyst at Safras & Mercado, says that in September, advance sales reached 20.18% of expected production for the 2025/26 season. The rate is below the five-year average of 28.12%. For Mr. Silveira, this stance relates to the trade war between the U.S. and China. Although both countries have announced a truce in retaliatory tariffs, doubt remains whether China will buy soybeans from the U.S. “The first point to understand the contraction in sales is the trade war. The last cargo [of soybeans] that left the U.S. for China was in May. From then on, Brazil and Argentina have been supplying the Asian country. The producer holds back the crop to try to get a better price down the road,” says Mr. Silveira. According to the consultancy’s calculations, through August this year, China bought 65.92 million tonnes of soybeans from Brazil. The volume is 8% higher than purchases made in the same period last year. The U.S., meanwhile, exported 22.4 million tonnes to the Chinese in the same period, a 7.8% decline year-over-year. With China pushing back soybean deliveries from the United States, the analyst believes demand will remain firm for the Brazilian product. “Brazil will likely export 104 million tonnes in this 2024/25 crop. Despite this volume, our carryover stock would still be very large, and this would force producers to be more aggressive in sales.” Céleres Consultoria analyst Enílson Nogueira says that sales of the new crop reach 25% of production, a delay of 10 percentage points. According to him, besides the trade war, the slower pace also stems from exchange rate behavior. “Today we have an exchange rate almost stuck in the R$5.40 range, when it was already at R$5.60 levels, which brings a much better margin for the producer. The second point is that he still doesn’t know if China will actually buy soybeans from the U.S. All this uncertainty becomes fuel for the producer to ‘wait and see’ what will happen with the market and wait for the best time to negotiate,” he says. In calculations by ênio Fernandes of Terra Agronegócios, the percentage of soybeans traded, at 25%, should be at 30%, were it not for the drop in oilseed prices in the futures market due to large global supply. “For many producers, the numbers aren’t adding up today. So they will wait for either Chicago to rise or the dollar to appreciate to balance expenses. But the trend for the grain is still downward, and the dollar has no upward horizon, amid expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S.” In estimates by Brandalizze Consulting, advance sales in Brazil are at 18% of expected production volume for the 2025/26 soybean crop, when the normal level would be between 25% and 27% at this time. In Mato Grosso, which traditionally closes more advance sales, the rate is at 22%, well below the 35% average, according to Vlamir Brandalizze. Like other specialists, the consultant considers that producers expect price increases, and therefore postpone sales. Mr. Brandalizze sees a risk in this strategy, such as a drop in premiums paid at Brazilian ports at harvest time, if advance sales don’t accelerate. “If you leave too much soybean to sell at harvest time, there will be a price drop,” he said. The U.S. is expected to harvest a smaller crop than last year and make a deal with China to resume exports, generating little impact on prices, the consultant said. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates production at 116.82 million tonnes, 1.7% smaller than in the 2024/25 crop. While consultancies see slowness in future sales, at one of Brazil's largest agricultural companies, the scenario is different. André Guillaumon, CEO of BrasilAgro, told reporters last week that the company made advance sales of 48% of expected soybean production for the 2025/26 crop and that this volume is within the historical average for the period, which is 45% to 49%. Mr. Guillaumon observed that sales in Brazil as a whole are delayed. “Advance sales should be at more than 40% in Brazil and are around 30%. In my interpretation, the producer saw a premium recovery and decided to hold back, expecting an even better price,” he said. He said the premium for soybeans reached $2 per bushel relative to Chicago exchange prices. But he noted that premiums forecast for September 2026 are between $0.30 and $0.40 per bushel, therefore showing a downward trend in coming months.
