The_butterfly_effect_What_is_chaos_theory.txt
Heavy_rain_and_wind_forecast_as_unsettled_weather_returns_to_UK_-_BBC_Weather.txt
Heavy rain and platinum pass package pokerstarswind forecast as unsettled weather returns to UKImage source, EPABySarah Keith-LucasLead Weather Presenter Published9 September 2025487 CommentsAutumn has arrived and is making its presence known with an unsettled start to September.Wind and rain are set to sweep in from the Atlantic on Wednesday bringing about a drop in temperature and a risk of thunderstorms.The weather will remain unsettled into the weekend with a chance of deeper areas of low pressure developing in the North Atlantic during the coming daysCurrently it's too early to be exact about the impact these lows may have - including if any will develop into a named storm. If that happens then the first storm of the season would be called 'Storm Amy'.You can keep up to date via the BBC Weather app or by following our latest forecast.Why the change in weather?Image caption, The jet stream will shift to the south of the UK allowing areas of low pressure to move in from the westThe jet stream - a fast moving ribbon of air in the upper atmosphere - is going to be moving to the south of the UK this week and strengthening in speed. This will allow developing areas of low pressure to drift eastwards bringing rain and wind to all areas. How to stay safe during a storm and what to do in a power cutThrough much of spring and summer, the jet stream was stuck further north in a pattern which often kept rain-bearing weather fronts away. However, as it often the case this time of year, as we transition out of summer and into autumn, we're now seeing a more westerly influence to the weather. The blocked pattern has broken down and this has opened the doors for Atlantic weather systems to move in.Image caption, Rain is on the way for all of us this week with the wettest weather likely around the western coastsWhat is the longer range forecast?As we head deeper into the autumn months, most forecast models indicate an increased chance of a 'wetter than average' spell from September to November in the UK. However there is always a lot of uncertainty in seasonal forecasts, and these should be interpreted as likely trends rather than expected conditions. It's unlikely we'll see a repeat of September 2024 which was the wettest on record for 10 English counties, including Bedfordshire, Buckinghamshire and Wiltshire. They received more than 3 times their expected September rainfall leading to widespread flooding.Will the rain help relieve the drought?This year so far, the UK has experienced its sunniest spring and warmest summer on record. Both these seasons have also been very dry for many, especially for some regions of England and Wales, where hosepipe bans remain in force and drought has been officially declared.The data from January to August shows that the UK as a whole has received just 44% of its expected annual rainfall (compared to an expected average of 67% by this stage in the year). If we were to reach 'normal' rainfall totals by the end of the year, we'd need to see a very wet spell of weather from September to December, with 141% of average rainfall each month. Although this week's rainfall is welcome and will go some way to help river levels and soil moisture content, it will take some time for catchments to recover and for reservoirs and aquifers to respond. Rainfall moves slowly through the water cycle, needing to soak deep through the soil and way down into the groundwater stores. According to the Met Office "Sustained rainfall throughout autumn and winter will be needed in some areas to restore water resources.".As our world warms, climate scientists expect the UK to experience wetter, warmer winters and hotter, drier summers. Although the distribution and intensity of the UK's rainfall is shifting, the link between climate change and drought is complex due to hydrological and societal factors.Drought declared after driest six months in decadesPublished14 AugustMore on this storyMonthly OutlookPublished2 days agoComments can not be loadedTo load Comments you need to enable JavaScript in your browserCommentsJoin the conversationThese comments are now closed.487 commentsShowLatestOldestHighest RatedMost RepliedOComment by okokok at 21:01 9 Sepokokok21:01 9 SepIt's not to be unexpected at this time of year but it's good to get an explanation as to why the weather is changing ie jet stream moving south. It's through informative articles like this that people can learn more.Reply20013Show comment linksNComment by Northfield at 21:27 9 SepNorthfield21:27 9 Septo okokok"It's not to be unexpected at this time of year but it's good to get an explanation as to why the weather is changing ie jet stream moving south. It's through informative articles like this that people can learn more."What a ridiculously sensible comment. You have no place here.Reply1808Show comment linksMore replies (5)RComment by Rabbitkiller at 20:48 9 SepRabbitkiller20:48 9 SepWow. Wind and rain in autumn in the UK. Who'd have thought it?Reply24883Show comment linksJComment by Jonty Halcrow at 20:50 9 SepJonty Halcrow20:50 9 Septo Rabbitkiller"Wow. Wind and rain in autumn in the UK. Who'd have thought it?"Next they will be talking about ground frost and hill snow?!!!Reply12732Show comment linksMore replies (21)SComment by STANLEYTONE 4-2004-4 at 20:38 9 SepSTANLEYTONE 4-2004-420:38 9 SepLet us have rain beautiful rain ???????Reply16319Show comment linksMComment by Marc H at 21:23 9 SepMarc H21:23 9 Septo STANLEYTONE 4-2004-4"Let us have rain beautiful rain ???????"I'm weird... I like rain too.Reply768Show comment linksMore replies (8)IComment by icecoldstevet at 20:27 9 Sepicecoldstevet20:27 9 SepThis is quite NORMAL weather for the time of year, sometimes Autumn is warm and dry and sometimes it's wet and windy. It's not surprising that reservoirs are running dry as we haven't built ANY of any significance for around 50 years yet population has increased by more than 10% in the last 20 years alone. Not being able to use your hosepipe is NOTHING to do with Climate Change and neither is any specific weather event.Reply19597Show comment linksIComment by icecoldstevet at 20:29 9 Sepicecoldstevet20:29 9 Septo icecoldstevet"This is quite NORMAL weather for the time of year, sometimes Autumn is warm and dry and sometimes it's wet and windy. It's not surprising that reservoirs are running dry as we haven't built ANY of any significance for around 50 years yet population has increased by more than 10% in the last 20 years alone. Not being able to use your hosepipe is NOTHING to do with Climate Change and neither is any specific weather event."We should be more worried about volcanoes impacting our weather rather than CO2 emissions. Sometime around 1850 a big one went up and the sun didn't shine in Europe for a year, ruining crops etc.Reply64125Show comment linksMore replies (26)EComment by EMU at 20:18 9 SepEMU20:18 9 Sep"Why the change in weather?" Its called Autumn !Reply10858Show comment linksAComment by annaant at 20:26 9 Sepannaant20:26 9 Septo EMU""Why the change in weather?" Its called Autumn !"Maybe some people are still interested in learning about weather. Scroll on if it’s not of interest!Reply8325Show comment linksMore replies (9)LComment by LythamTim at 20:51 9 SepLythamTim20:51 9 SepThe bbc forecast rain and thunder (pestilence and frogs?) all week last week in Yorkshire. We had a little light rain on Wednesday, otherwise sunny spells…Think they’re deliberately pessimistic as no one complains of the weather is better than forecast. ??Reply5215Show comment linksLComment by LythamTim at 20:56 9 SepLythamTim20:56 9 Septo LythamTim"The bbc forecast rain and thunder (pestilence and frogs?) all week last week in Yorkshire. We had a little light rain on Wednesday, otherwise sunny spells… Think they’re deliberately pessimistic as no one complains of the weather is better than forecast. ??"Before anyone notes Lytham isn’t in Yorkshire, I was on holiday ??Reply165Show comment linksMore replies (4)JComment by james1410 at 20:47 9 Sepjames141020:47 9 SepI believe the bbc weather should include all the beaches that will be polluted by the water companies with the rain fall forecast.Reply438Show comment linksMComment by Mike at 20:52 9 SepMike20:52 9 Septo james1410"I believe the bbc weather should include all the beaches that will be polluted by the water companies with the rain fall forecast."It was always thus, you just know about it now as its measured. Not that it makes it OK.Reply92Show comment linksMore replies (2)IComment by icecoldstevet at 20:32 9 Sepicecoldstevet20:32 9 SepNo problem with reservoir levels here in the South West, it's not really got much above 21c for more than a few days this year. The SE gets all the coverage due to higher recorded temperatures which are in part down to the 'heat island effect', down to massive development there over the past 50 years; the Met Office don't adjust temperatures on TV to take account of this when issuing their various missives.Reply6534Show comment linksIComment by icecoldstevet at 20:34 9 Sepicecoldstevet20:34 9 Septo icecoldstevet"No problem with reservoir levels here in the South West, it's not really got much above 21c for more than a few days this year. The SE gets all the coverage due to higher recorded temperatures which are in part down to the 'heat island effect', down to massive development there over the past 50 years; the Met Office don't adjust temperatures on TV to take account of this when issuing their various missives."Of course the planet is getting warmer but our weather is broadly as it's always been, sometimes wet, sometimes windy, sometimes dry, sometimes cold, sometimes hot. Nothing to see here.Reply6447Show comment linksMore replies (25)BComment by Ben Doon at 20:24 9 SepBen Doon20:24 9 SepDear oh dear - it's called seasonal weather - why the big news splash..?Reply6134Show comment linksRemoved CommentMore replies (7)DComment by Dnallov at 21:58 9 SepDnallov21:58 9 SepWhat on earth is wrong with everyone in the HYS comments! This is a weather section article about the weather we are expected to have, and everyone is bemoaning that they are being told that autumn weather is somewhat autumnal; then discussing/ dismissing climate change for zero reason. Nothing in the article is saying that it isn't normal weather for autumn - it’s literally just giving you a forecast for the coming week.I tell, social media has destroyed people's brainsReply326Show comment linksSComment by Serpukhovian-Bashkirian at 22:10 9 SepSerpukhovian-Bashkirian22:10 9 Septo Dnallov"What on earth is wrong with everyone in the HYS comments! This is a weather section article about the weather we are expected to have, and everyone is bemoaning that they are being told that autumn weather is somewhat autumnal; then discussing/ dismissing climate change for zero reason. Nothing in the article is saying that it isn't normal weather for autumn - it’s literally just giving you a forecast for the coming week. I tell, social media has destroyed people's brains"Very well said and absolutely correct.Reply153Show comment linksMore replies (2)SComment by Sports fan at 20:26 9 SepSports fan20:26 9 SepIt’s autumn so the weather in the UK will get cooler and wetter.But let’s be honest meteorologists have no clue about the weather. I’m old enough to remember when they were confidently predicting global cooling in the 1970s and 1980s.Reply5732Show comment linksAComment by annaant at 20:27 9 Sepannaant20:27 9 Septo Sports fan"It’s autumn so the weather in the UK will get cooler and wetter. But let’s be honest meteorologists have no clue about the weather. I’m old enough to remember when they were confidently predicting global cooling in the 1970s and 1980s."Well done for being a weather oracle. Meteorologists are incredible.Reply2233Show comment linksMore replies (15)JComment by Jack O at 20:38 9 SepJack O20:38 9 SepDo we need a Lead Weather Presenter to tell us autumn has arrivedReply4422Show comment linksWComment by We All Stand at 20:47 9 SepWe All Stand20:47 9 Septo Jack O"Do we need a Lead Weather Presenter to tell us autumn has arrived"Do we need you to ask whether we need a lead weather presenter?It's a conundrum on a par with the old women who swallowed a fly.Why DID she swallow that fly?Reply2110Show comment linksMore replies (5)MComment by Mr Whiteside at 20:44 9 SepMr Whiteside 20:44 9 SepThanks for keeping me updated on the weather as I struggle to look out of the windowReply4018Show comment linksKComment by keegan at 20:45 9 Sepkeegan20:45 9 Septo Mr Whiteside "Thanks for keeping me updated on the weather as I struggle to look out of the window"You can see the future out your window?I'm not sure you really was a weather 'forecast' means.Reply22Show comment linksMore replies (4)EComment by Eric Clacton at 21:41 9 SepEric Clacton21:41 9 SepI prefer the rain too. Living in London it has the twin effect of cleaning the grime of the streets and the crime. It keeps all the ne'er-do-wells locked up indoors. In fact, the : Rain, Sleet and Snow are the best peelers in the Met.Reply181Show comment linksMComment by maureen at 17:29 10 Sepmaureen17:29 10 Septo Eric Clacton"I prefer the rain too. Living in London it has the twin effect of cleaning the grime of the streets and the crime. It keeps all the ne'er-do-wells locked up indoors. In fact, the : Rain, Sleet and Snow are the best peelers in the Met."Weather helps with paranoia, does it ?Reply00Show comment linksMComment by MKMAT at 20:56 9 SepMKMAT20:56 9 SepIt’s raining and windy in September! Who would have thought it ??Reply3217Show comment linksJComment by jimmyclaret at 21:08 9 Sepjimmyclaret21:08 9 Septo MKMAT"It’s raining and windy in September! Who would have thought it ??"To be fair, it's incredibly unusual and no one can ever remember it being like this previously.LolReply1411Show comment linksLComment by letsgetoutnow at 21:40 9 Sepletsgetoutnow21:40 9 SepThe BBCs obsession on weather is ridiculous. Doom and gloom about every type of weather. Sunshine in summer, rain in autumn, snow and ice in winter. Who'd have thought it.It's almost as bad as their obsession with sport.Reply3116Show comment linksWComment by We All Stand at 21:47 9 SepWe All Stand21:47 9 Septo letsgetoutnow"The BBCs obsession on weather is ridiculous. Doom and gloom about every type of weather. Sunshine in summer, rain in autumn, snow and ice in winter. Who'd have thought it. It's almost as bad as their obsession with sport."Whatever you do don't look at the Daily Mail.They jumped the shark years ago.Will low temperatures cause house prices to fall and Diana memorial to freeze over?Reply201Show comment linksMore replies (3)GComment by Glasgow Clippy at 20:28 9 SepGlasgow Clippy20:28 9 SepMarty Feldman,eye askew in the Dark stage spotlight “ There will be Dread Hail pestilence and flood”Then lights up to reveal a standard weather map of UKand Finishes with“ And as for the rest of the Country it will be mainly dry with sunny periods”????????Reply194Show comment linksPComment by Pundit at 20:24 9 SepPundit20:24 9 Sep141% rain required to fill the reservoirs by year end, eh. No thanks!Reply177Show comment linksSComment by Salforal at 21:23 9 SepSalforal21:23 9 Septo Pundit"141% rain required to fill the reservoirs by year end, eh. No thanks!"We clearly need to fill the reservoirs, rivers and sources, so if that is what it takes, let it happen. It doesn't have to fall in one day!Reply143Show comment linksMore replies (2)More commentsBack to toploading comments module
