The_vital_tradition_of_naming_baby_gorillas.txt
Why_Manchester_United_have_been_better_than_their_results_-_BBC_Sport.txt
Why Man Utd have variancia do pokerbeen better than their resultsImage source, Getty ImagesImage caption, Manchester United are hoping to improve on last season's 15th-placed finishByChris CollinsonBBC football data analystPublished10 September 20251695 CommentsWith just two Premier League wins since the start of April, it seems only a fool would say that Manchester United have been improving under Ruben Amorim…and yet that's exactly what the stats suggest.While only Tottenham have taken fewer points in their past 10 games, United's underlying numbers suggest their performances have deserved more and, if anything, it's the players who have underperformed more than Amorim and his much-maligned formation.We've excluded penalties to show how good United have been at creating and restricting chances themselves, rather than relying on opposition clumsiness or shirt-pulling like they did to score the winner against Burnley.As you can see, United have taken the most shots in the Premier League in the past 10 games, while only rivals Manchester City - Sunday's Premier League opponents - have faced fewer among the 17 sides ever-present during the time frame.The big problem has been scoring and saving them, with United's players scoring seven goals fewer than Premier League players have historically from the chances they've had and conceding four goals more.While it's worth mentioning that those 10 games include 65 minutes against 10-man Bournemouth and Aston Villa, it's not a given that teams easily dominate games when an opponent has a man sent off, as Liverpool's recent game against Newcastle showed.Only six sides have been more dominant than United in their past 10 Premier League games and if they'd been as efficient as other teams, United would have around double the points than the paltry eight they have.What's the cause of this big underperformance in both boxes? It's hard to know for sure. It could be that the players simply aren't good enough – in which case United buying a whole new front line and goalkeeper this summer makes a lot more sense – or a lack of confidence or just plain old bad luck.One thing that won't have helped the players be efficient under Amorim and that could be blamed on his tactics is that since he took charge, United have taken both the lowest-quality shots up front and given up the highest-quality shots at the back.Even so, the expected goal numbers already take that added difficulty into account so United's players should be doing better, although both creating the worst chances and being the worst at converting chances is not a good combination.If we look at their 30 Premier League games under Amorim overall, while obviously starting from a low bar, the team have been steadily improving since the start of March, creating more and better chances than their opponents (the yellow line) even if results currently suggest otherwise (the black line).Why does it matter how much more United have recently dominated games and been 'expected' to score when at the end of the day, scoring and conceding actual goals is all that matters?Because history tells us that football is a simple game: the more a team creates lots of good chances up front and allows few, bad ones at the back, the more success they have in the long-term.While being clinical in both boxes is obviously important and United do need to work on the quality of their shots, not even the most blessed or cursed teams can 'cheat' their expected goal numbers forever.So although Ruben Amorim hasn't had the impact many United fans would've hoped for when he took over in December, there have been signs recently of things getting better under him.Related topicsManchester UnitedFootballMore on this storyLatest Manchester United news, analysis and fan viewsAsk about Man Utd - what do you want to know?Comments can not be loadedTo load Comments you need to enable JavaScript in your browserCommentsJoin the conversationThese comments are now closed.1695 commentsShowLatestOldestHighest RatedMost RepliedTComment by themightypierre at 06:24 10 Septhemightypierre06:24 10 SepPlease stop analysing us. It just winds everyone up. We are an inconsequential team at the moment. Let everyone get mad about someone else while we rebuild. I know you are chasing clicks but chase them elsewhere.Reply112273Show comment linksEComment by Eggin Su at 06:43 10 SepEggin Su06:43 10 Septo themightypierre"Please stop analysing us. It just winds everyone up. We are an inconsequential team at the moment. Let everyone get mad about someone else while we rebuild. I know you are chasing clicks but chase them elsewhere."You've been rebuilding for 12 years to be fair.Reply58776Show comment linksMore replies (140)JComment by Josep Guardiola Sala at 06:31 10 SepJosep Guardiola Sala06:31 10 SepThere's 19 other teams in the premier league.Reply67042Show comment linksNComment by Nineandone at 06:52 10 SepNineandone06:52 10 Septo Josep Guardiola Sala"There's 19 other teams in the premier league."I just remember all those ‘Man U fans’ celebrating the 2008 CL final, telling Chelsea fans they’d never win itIt’s the same people who now sit at the Amex and say to Chelsea fans ‘we support our local team’ Honestly you couldn’t make it upReply106207Show comment linksMore replies (46)1Comment by 1571 at 06:26 10 Sep157106:26 10 Sep‘Stats show Man Utd underperforming’Stats also show they have taken the worst shots and given up the best shots.Can’t make it upReply1607Show comment linksNComment by Nick at 07:52 10 SepNick07:52 10 Septo 1571"‘Stats show Man Utd underperforming’ Stats also show they have taken the worst shots and given up the best shots. Can’t make it up"All this data data data. Is there any data on how a potential signing can deal with the pressure and expectation of playing for United?Reply434Show comment linksMore replies (8)PComment by pavlev at 06:36 10 Seppavlev06:36 10 SepThese utd articles are the new Troy deeney team of the week. Click, straight to the comments and enjoyReply1355Show comment linksSComment by Steve at 07:01 10 SepSteve07:01 10 Septo pavlev"These utd articles are the new Troy deeney team of the week. Click, straight to the comments and enjoy"Even Troy Deeney wouldnt spout this rubbishReply714Show comment linksMore replies (4)KComment by Kieron at 06:23 10 SepKieron06:23 10 SepDesperate.Reply1116Show comment linksTComment by toffeeforever at 06:30 10 Septoffeeforever06:30 10 Septo Kieron"Desperate."They are as good as their results show - not very good. Stop your obsessive writing about one team that finished 15th last year.Reply11810Show comment linksMore replies (2)GComment by Gandalf the White at 06:26 10 SepGandalf the White06:26 10 SepOne that just can't be polished.Carry on.Reply1016Show comment linksSComment by Sock at 06:29 10 SepSock06:29 10 Septo Gandalf the White"One that just can't be polished. Carry on."Being rolled in glitter hasn't helped much eitherReply655Show comment linksMore replies (1)BComment by bgb71 at 06:24 10 Sepbgb7106:24 10 SepThe excuse machine in full flow.Reply865Show comment linksSComment by SteH11 at 09:45 10 SepSteH1109:45 10 Septo bgb71"The excuse machine in full flow."I wonder if the writer of this article is so confident in the underlying data. They’d be willing to put big money on United making top 4?You’d get very good odds on that, make a tidy profit.But they won’t. Most people expect United to be higher than 15th this season, surely they can’t be that bad again? But they’re still no better than a mid-table club!Reply352Show comment linksMore replies (2)SComment by Steven at 06:33 10 SepSteven 06:33 10 SepSurely you are o ly as good as the result states. Other clubs are available as it's not even newsworthy.Reply673Show comment linksRemoved CommentFComment by FlyHigh at 06:22 10 SepFlyHigh06:22 10 SepCome on... really?Reply583Show comment linksRComment by Razor Sharpster at 08:09 10 SepRazor Sharpster08:09 10 Septo FlyHigh"Come on... really?"No one reads this guff, they come straight to the comments to have a laugh at ManU.Stats count for nothing, as 'goals scored', 'points earned' and 'place in the table' are the only things that matter.They could break records by having 100 shots a game, but it means nothing if they have 0 goals.If anything, it proves they have rubbish strikers.Reply1156Show comment linksMore replies (5)More commentsBack to toploading comments module
